What Protects Those at High Risk from Criminal Justice Contact Despite the Odds? A Negative Case Analysis

Criminal justice contact is a prevalent, if not expected, life event for many high-risk individuals with deleterious consequences; yet, many individuals at high risk are able to avoid this contact (i.e. negative cases exist). In this study, we draw on the life course framework and utilize negative case analysis to (1) estimate the prevalence of criminal justice avoidance within a sample of structurally high-risk Black men and (2) explore the individual, familial and contextual factors in childhood and adolescence that distinguish these negative cases. One’s own ‘on-time’ and one’s siblings’ education emerge as particularly strong protective factors suggesting that the presence of unique protection, as opposed to the absence of risk, may be most salient. Theoretical implications are discussed.