The Eritrean Experiment: a Cautious Pragmatism?

This is an attempt to assess Eritrea's democratic prospects in light of its political experience since 1993 as a sovereign state. I readily concede that it is too early to make a definitive assessment; yet, just as a child's first few years are extraordinarily critical in helping to determine its subsequent intellectual, physical, and moral development, so can a new nation cumulate experiences that help set it firmly on its feet and give it the capacity for yet more positive growth. Further, there is no denying the force of genetic and environmental factors in the development of both children and states: what they inherit from the past, as well as the circumstances of their creation, and experiences of infancy, all contribute to what they will become. I have no wish to stretch the metaphor further; my point is that a detached analysis of Eritrea's political inheritance and the forces and key events since its formal independence can give, at least, a preliminary reading on its prospects. Thus, I intend to argue that these first five years have been marked by pragmatic policy-formation and decision-making which, taken as a whole, warrant a cautious optimism about the country's democratic future.