Aggregate-Level Lead Exposure, Gun Violence, Homicide, and Rape

Brian B. Boutwell; Erik J. Nelson; Zhengmin Qian; Michael G. Vaughn; John P. Wright; John P. Wright; Kevin M. Beaver; Kevin M. Beaver; J. C. Barnes; Melissa Petkovsek; Roger Lewis; Mario Schootman; Richard Rosenfeld

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0187953

Aggregate-Level Lead Exposure, Gun Violence, Homicide, and Rape

Brian B. Boutwell, Erik J. Nelson, Zhengmin Qian, Michael G. Vaughn, John P. Wright, John P. Wright, Kevin M. Beaver, Kevin M. Beaver, J. C. Barnes, Melissa Petkovsek, Roger Lewis, Mario Schootman, Richard Rosenfeld

University of Missouri-St. Louis

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

 Context
 An increasing body of research has linked the geographic distribution of lead with various indicators of criminal and antisocial behavior.
 
 Objective
 The current study, using data from an ongoing project related to lead exposure in St. Louis City, MO, analyzed the association between aggregate blood lead levels and specific indicators violent crime within the city.
 
 Design
 Ecological study.
 
 Setting
 St. Louis, Missouri.
 
 Exposure measure
 Blood lead levels.
 
 Main outcome measure
 Official reports of violent crimes were categorized as 1) crimes involving a firearm (yes/no), 2) assault crimes (with or without a firearm), 3) robbery crimes (with or without a firearm), 4) homicides and 5) rape.
 
 Results
 With the exception of rape, aggregate blood-lead levels were statistically significant predictors of violent crime at the census tract level. The risk ratios for each of the outcome measures were as follows: firearm crimes 1.03 (1.03–1.04), assault crimes 1.03 (1.02–1.03), robbery crimes 1.03 (1.02–1.04), homicide 1.03 (1.01, 1.04), and rape 1.01 (0.99–1.03).
 
 Conclusions
 Extending prior research in St. Louis, results suggest that aggregated lead exposure at the census tract level predicted crime outcomes, even after accounting for important sociological variables. Moving forward, a more developed understanding of aggregate level crime may necessitate a shift toward studying the synergy between sociological and biological risk factors such as lead exposure.

Original language	American English
Journal	PLoS ONE
Volume	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0187953
State	Published - Nov 27 2017

Disciplines

Criminology and Criminal Justice
Criminology
Demography, Population, and Ecology

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Cite this

@article{5d0a99de9a684c74851da30093a3d7fd,

title = "Aggregate-Level Lead Exposure, Gun Violence, Homicide, and Rape",

abstract = " Context An increasing body of research has linked the geographic distribution of lead with various indicators of criminal and antisocial behavior. Objective The current study, using data from an ongoing project related to lead exposure in St. Louis City, MO, analyzed the association between aggregate blood lead levels and specific indicators violent crime within the city. Design Ecological study. Setting St. Louis, Missouri. Exposure measure Blood lead levels. Main outcome measure Official reports of violent crimes were categorized as 1) crimes involving a firearm (yes/no), 2) assault crimes (with or without a firearm), 3) robbery crimes (with or without a firearm), 4) homicides and 5) rape. Results With the exception of rape, aggregate blood-lead levels were statistically significant predictors of violent crime at the census tract level. The risk ratios for each of the outcome measures were as follows: firearm crimes 1.03 (1.03–1.04), assault crimes 1.03 (1.02–1.03), robbery crimes 1.03 (1.02–1.04), homicide 1.03 (1.01, 1.04), and rape 1.01 (0.99–1.03). Conclusions Extending prior research in St. Louis, results suggest that aggregated lead exposure at the census tract level predicted crime outcomes, even after accounting for important sociological variables. Moving forward, a more developed understanding of aggregate level crime may necessitate a shift toward studying the synergy between sociological and biological risk factors such as lead exposure.",

author = "Boutwell, {Brian B.} and Nelson, {Erik J.} and Zhengmin Qian and Vaughn, {Michael G.} and Wright, {John P.} and Wright, {John P.} and Beaver, {Kevin M.} and Beaver, {Kevin M.} and Barnes, {J. C.} and Melissa Petkovsek and Roger Lewis and Mario Schootman and Richard Rosenfeld",

year = "2017",

month = nov,

day = "27",

doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0187953",

language = "American English",

volume = "12",

journal = "PLoS ONE",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Aggregate-Level Lead Exposure, Gun Violence, Homicide, and Rape

AU - Boutwell, Brian B.

AU - Nelson, Erik J.

AU - Qian, Zhengmin

AU - Vaughn, Michael G.

AU - Wright, John P.

AU - Beaver, Kevin M.

AU - Barnes, J. C.

AU - Petkovsek, Melissa

AU - Lewis, Roger

AU - Schootman, Mario

AU - Rosenfeld, Richard

PY - 2017/11/27

Y1 - 2017/11/27

N2 - Context An increasing body of research has linked the geographic distribution of lead with various indicators of criminal and antisocial behavior. Objective The current study, using data from an ongoing project related to lead exposure in St. Louis City, MO, analyzed the association between aggregate blood lead levels and specific indicators violent crime within the city. Design Ecological study. Setting St. Louis, Missouri. Exposure measure Blood lead levels. Main outcome measure Official reports of violent crimes were categorized as 1) crimes involving a firearm (yes/no), 2) assault crimes (with or without a firearm), 3) robbery crimes (with or without a firearm), 4) homicides and 5) rape. Results With the exception of rape, aggregate blood-lead levels were statistically significant predictors of violent crime at the census tract level. The risk ratios for each of the outcome measures were as follows: firearm crimes 1.03 (1.03–1.04), assault crimes 1.03 (1.02–1.03), robbery crimes 1.03 (1.02–1.04), homicide 1.03 (1.01, 1.04), and rape 1.01 (0.99–1.03). Conclusions Extending prior research in St. Louis, results suggest that aggregated lead exposure at the census tract level predicted crime outcomes, even after accounting for important sociological variables. Moving forward, a more developed understanding of aggregate level crime may necessitate a shift toward studying the synergy between sociological and biological risk factors such as lead exposure.

AB - Context An increasing body of research has linked the geographic distribution of lead with various indicators of criminal and antisocial behavior. Objective The current study, using data from an ongoing project related to lead exposure in St. Louis City, MO, analyzed the association between aggregate blood lead levels and specific indicators violent crime within the city. Design Ecological study. Setting St. Louis, Missouri. Exposure measure Blood lead levels. Main outcome measure Official reports of violent crimes were categorized as 1) crimes involving a firearm (yes/no), 2) assault crimes (with or without a firearm), 3) robbery crimes (with or without a firearm), 4) homicides and 5) rape. Results With the exception of rape, aggregate blood-lead levels were statistically significant predictors of violent crime at the census tract level. The risk ratios for each of the outcome measures were as follows: firearm crimes 1.03 (1.03–1.04), assault crimes 1.03 (1.02–1.03), robbery crimes 1.03 (1.02–1.04), homicide 1.03 (1.01, 1.04), and rape 1.01 (0.99–1.03). Conclusions Extending prior research in St. Louis, results suggest that aggregated lead exposure at the census tract level predicted crime outcomes, even after accounting for important sociological variables. Moving forward, a more developed understanding of aggregate level crime may necessitate a shift toward studying the synergy between sociological and biological risk factors such as lead exposure.

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