A Longitudinal Study of Welfare Exit among American Indian Families.

Data from a longitudinal survey of families from three reservations (Navajo Nation, San Carlos, and Salt River) in Arizona were used to examine their probability of welfare use. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the effects of individual, family, and structural factors on welfare exit. Results indicate that their probability of welfare exit depended largely on economic opportunities on or near their reservations. Respondents from reservations with better employment opportunities were more likely to exit welfare than those who lived in more geographically isolated reservations with a high jobless rate. Other factors, including human capital, assets ownership, marriage, and two-parent family formation, which are known to contribute to welfare exit at the national level, did not have a similar effect on welfare recipients on reservations. Implications of findings are discussed.